Updated: Apr 30
Hello again- hope we all had a great week 1 and are looking forward to a profitable week 2 in MLS action. Remember not to take a single week for granted- this is the time stuff started going downhill last year.
If you want this week's picks- skip ahead to the dotted line.
If you want to check my accountability from last week's picks- continue reading below.
**For consistency's sake, I used "units" instead of dollars. A unit is whatever your regular wager is. Wether it be $1 or $1,000- using "unit" is a more accurate way than "winnings" to calculate consistency and earnings over time.**
Sporting KC @ RBNY- I had this game set up perfectly. Sporting used wing play to attack susceptible fullbacks for NY.
In the end, it was Gutman who was picked on- giving up a penalty for Sporting KC to tie the game AND letting in a low cross on the game-winner. In fairness to him, the entire Red Bull defense was napping on that second goal- including terrible coverage by Kyle Duncan. The fullbacks gave the game away for RBNY and we won 1.75 units.
Orlando vs Atlanta- Atlanta looked good holding almost 60% possession in this matchup, although they were tied for 11 shots and 3 on target apiece. In the end, a tie is a loss and we went down 1 unit with the draw.
Cincinnati @ Nashville- Cincy came out hot and scored two goals in the first 12 minutes with a click from Luciano Acosta and a penalty a few minutes later. After their two goals, they could not find possession and goalkeeper Tyton saw 31 (!!!) shots come his way.
I said this bet was risky but worth it at a chance at triple-your-money. We saw Cincinnati coming out swinging, but they just didn't have it in week 1.
WEEK 2 Value Picks
Once again for transparency's sake, these are not the "BEST" picks- but good picks with the best ODDS. You can't win much taking heavy favorites, so here are the values I found heading into MLS Week 2.
SJ Quakes (+140) over FC Dallas- Dallas came out with 3 center-backs against Colorado this week, and if they do that again they will have trouble with the speed of Cade Cowell atop the San Jose attack. If Cowell can find ANY space he can EXPLODE in week 2.
San Jose should win the midfield battle with Remedi, Yueill, and Chofis Lopez (did you see him take a swinging kick last week?). Expect a better Quakes attack than week 1.
Philadelphia Union (-105) vs Inter Miami- Philadelphia looked solid against Colombus in a 0-0 draw that lacked only a finish. Miami, on the other hand, needed a PK to score two (in a loss) against an LA Galaxy team that gave up 46 goals in 2020.
I specifically liked how Philly’s narrow formation lines up against Figal and LGP from Miami in the center of their backline. Getting past the midfield of Gregore and Matuidi may be no easy task, but the Union will have the numerical advantage to find Przybylko and Sergio Santos in the box.
LA Galaxy (+135) over NY Red Bulls- I gotta stop picking against my own team eventually, but with odds over +100 it won't be week 2.
Red Bull made it known in week 1 that unless you signal your attacking intent with glowing tarmac batons they are incapable of stopping it. Twice the fullbacks were taken advantage of (Gutman and Duncan) and twice SKC scored easy goals.
LA Galaxy was EFFICIENT in week 1 scoring 3 goals on only 6 shots (5 on target), while still having 66% possession and 90% pass completion. Expect Chicharito to try and "walk It in" again against RBNY- I'd be sure he can sneak in the box undetected.
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