Week 11 MLS Toll-Booth Picks
Updated: Jul 17, 2021
Week 10 was a week to forget from a sportsbook perspective. It was our FIRST week losing money overall- we slipped to +22.64 units which is still a healthy sum through the first 10 weeks.
This week we are back to a full slate of weekend games AND some mid-week games for week 12. Make sure you are following @i80_Sports on twitter for up-to-date picks! Let's get into it!
Match- Atlanta United host New England Revolution
Pick- New England +120
Atlanta is in the middle of one of their roughest patches in recent memory- going winless in 7 with 5 draws and 2 losses. They face the cream of the east when Bruce Arena's New England Revolution come to town hungry after earning only 1 point out of their last possible 9.
Revolution will be without Tajon Buchanon, Luis Caicedo, and Matt Turner, while Atlanta currently has 6 players listed as "out" and another 6 listed as "questionable." Players listed as "out," unfortunately for Atlanta, include the three B's Bello, Barco, and Brad (Guzan) who are all on national team duty.
Key to the Game-
Attacker Adam Buksa seems to have been relegated to bench duty for New England despite scoring 5 times in his 723 minutes this season. His 4.18 shots per 90 and his 4.73 aerials won per 90 both land him in the 96th percentile for each stat, respectively.
New England is going to need some firepower on the end of Carles Gil's passes, and if Buksa gets the start I look for him to be the difference maker this weekend in Atlanta.
Match- Columbus Crew host NYCFC
Pick- NYCFC +160
NYCFC has had a few weeks of up and down play but hasn't drawn a game since May. Recently, they have been reinforced with two young Brazilian players with 19 year old Talles Magno and 20 year old Thiago (who boasts two goals in three appearances).
This week they will face a Columbus squad with 7 players "out" on international duty, Harrison Afful on suspension, and 5 others listed as questionable. Adding to their woes, Columbus is winless in their last 4 matches.
Key to the Game-
This game could be won and lost with substitutions.
In NYCFC's last win they scored with two subs- Thiago and Keaton Parks both appearing around halftime and turning a 0-1 loss into a 2-1 win. NYCFC has depth while Columbus will be struggling to field enough men.
Let's add to that a hot and humid night in Columbus expecting storms. I will take NYCFC.
Match- Vancouver Whitecaps host LA Galaxy
Pick- Vancouver +220
Vancouver played two gutsy games before the last international break, getting 2-2 draws at both Seattle AND Dallas. While their recent form leaves a LOT to be desired, they ARE playing at Rio Tinto Stadium, at altitude, against an LA Galaxy that cant seem to put any kind of winning streak together.
LA Galaxy, on the other hand, has an 8-4 record with no points from draws. That plays perfectly into their narrative as a streaky team- they are being outscored 10-1 on their losses and outscoring opponents 19-8 in their victories.
Key to the Game-
LA Galaxy beat Vancouver 2-1 on June 21st but could be without their goal scorers (and assist men) from that game. Sebastian Lletget and Efrain Alvarez are both out on international duty and Chicharito is still fighting a thigh injury (currently listed as questionable).
Vancouver has a little "homestand" coming up (at their adopted home) and are looking to get some points. Look for new addition Brian White to solidify something up top with Cristian Dajome and Deiber Caicedo. If they can score two, I think they leave with a win at great odds.
Match- Minnesota United host Seattle Sounders
Pick- Seattle +230
I said I would not pick against Seattle until they start dropping results- and thus they are the last undefeated MLS team. Seattle went 8-5-0 in their 12 matches this season, and now their record setting performance faces a rough two road games (Minnesota and Austin) before headed home for a three-game stand.
Key to the Game-
Sounders will play without 7 starters out with international duty, including Shane O'Neill and possibly Nouhou Tolo. For Minnesota, their injury list includes Boxall, Dibassy, Meranite, and Ike Opara. Do you see a trend here?
Both teams will have to dig deep to field defenses for this matchup. Minnesota has a suspect backline on a good day (giving up 16 goals in 11 matches) and will have trouble fending off a robust Sounders attack.
Sounders will be glad Raul Ruidiaz is back- this is a prime game to go on a 2 goal tear.
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