Welcome back to another edition of i80 Sports Toll booth- the best place on the web for Major League Soccer Sportsbook Picks!
We had an incredible weekend, going with 2 wins and 2 draws for a total earnings of 1.7 units! We had a big +200 win by LAFC and +170 for Philly to lead the way. Here is our weekly chart- for accountability.
Match- LAFC host San Jose Quakes
Pick- San Jose & Draw +170
LAFC had a bad Wednesday this week; it started with Vela coming off injured in the 20th minute of their Open Cup match against LA Galaxy, and ended with them losing 3-1 to their El Trafico rival. Both teams decided to slug it out and go for a trophy, which means a lot of starters on just a few days’ rest.
As for the Quakes, they sat a majority of their starters, which is evidence of their disinterest in the Open Cup this season. They lost 2-0 to Sacramento while fielding a poor team which STILL had 69.4% possession and led with 17 shots.
Key to the Match-
San Jose has been miserable on the road but has shown some signs of life with their 3-5-5 record this season. This matchup, for me, is just about the odds; Quakes are +500 to win and you can get the double chance (win or draw) at +170. I will be dabbling with both.
This is less about the Quakes, who I like, and more about the trouble LAFC will have playing early Saturday, on short rest, and without a cast of characters that include Carlos Vela, Franco Escobar, Julian Gaines, Eddie Segura, and Ismael Tajouri-Shradi. Having a short bench is not ideal during the Cup window, and LAFC have a chance to crash and burn this Saturday.
Match- CF Montreal host FC Cincinnati
Pick- Cincy and Draw +115
FC Montreal and FC Cincinnati currently sit at 4th and 6th place in the Eastern Conference with only one point between them. They could easily swap places this week during their matchup in the Great White North.
Montreal is coming off a two game losing streak against Real Salt Lake and Nashville SC, and will now look to improve on their 1.8 points per game at home this season. Cincy will look to crash their party and approve on their own 1.86 points per game away, one of the best PPG’s in Major League Soccer.
Key to the Match-
With all things aside, getting better than even money on a double-chance bet is enough to entice my pick. In this matchup, I love Cincinnati’s pressure and ability to steal the ball- they are currently 3rd in MLS with 171 tackles won, 37 of those being in the attacking third! Cincinnati should also be the fresher team; they did not have a midweek game like FC Montreal.
Montreal has been much improved on the back of Djordje Mihailovic, but I could see some costly turnovers, especially in precarious positions, being the difference in this game. At +115 for the win or draw, Cincinnati is an easy pick here.
Match- Orlando City host FC Dallas
Pick- Dallas +220
Orlando City will host FC Dallas this weekend in another match where the odds just seem OFF. Orlando had a disappointing match last week, going up early before conceding two red cards and two late goals. That tie cost them two points and the ability to field Cesar Araujo or Rodrigo Schlegel in this match.
Dallas, however, is climbing up the Western Conference table and is currently in third place with a 6-4-3 record. I liked their fight two weeks ago against the LA Galaxy and that 3-1 win has me eying them this week against Orlando City.
Key to the Match-
Orlando City is third worst in the league with a 10% DISADVANTAGE at home. They won’t be able to play the heat to their advantage against FC Dallas, especially after their overtime win over Miami just a few days prior.
At best, I see these teams as equals. However, nothing seems to be falling Orlando’s way this week and I feel confident taking Dallas, especially with their potent counterattack. Keep an eye on Jesus Ferreira who currently leads the Golden Boot race with 9 scores. He could have two again this weekend.
Match- Real Salt Lake host Houston Dynamo
Pick- RSL +100
Real Salt Lake comes in this week as the even-money home pick that I love to dabble with in my sportsbook portfolio. My i80 Sports co-host Alex always says I don’t take enough home picks, so here is a great one!
Real Salt Lake has won two straight games against tough opponents: Austin FC and Montreal. This week they are at home against the Houston Dynamo, and the home field advantage ALONE could be enough in this one! RSL is second in the league with a 44% advantage. Playing at altitude they have leverage, especially in longer games or against tired opponents (which they could have after Dynamo’s 2-1 midweek loss to Sporting KC).
The Houston Dynamo have been better than I presumed this season- their 5-3-5 record and 18 points has them currently in 7th place in the West. Unfortunately, they have a tough month ahead with 3 straight away games, followed by a span this summer where they play 4 of 5 away from home. They need to improve on the road to be taken seriously as contenders, and I would more likely see them fading to the bottom of the table.
Key to the Match-
One of the unpredictabilities of Real Salt Lake is the goal scoring- and I mean this in a good way. RSL can attack Houston successfully down the wings, relying on Justin Meram and Maikel Chang, OR look for goals from defenders such as Justen Glad or Tate Schmitt, who each have 2 this season. In fact, RSL has 14 goals by 10 goal scorers with NO PLAYER scoring more than 2 this season.
Who should Tim Parker and Teenage Hadebe, the two players central to Houston’s defense, focus their efforts on this week? I don’t know either, which is why RSL is a hot pick at +100.
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