Welcome back to another edition of i80 Sports Toll booth- the best place on the web for Major League Soccer Sportsbook Picks!
Last week featured a lot of upsets and interesting outcomes. Here is my results, for accountability.
Now, let's put it behind and get a look at week 11's picks!
Match- Charlotte FC host CF Montreal
Pick- Montreal +200
When I am looking at the beginning of the week for great sportsbook odds, I look for places where the adjusters don’t know what they’re looking at. When I saw that a large betting website, FanDuel, had this game listed as Charlotte vs Impact (check it, it is still there as of Thursday afternoon) I wanted to take a deeper look.
Montreal has been arguably one of the top teams in the east with a 5-2-3 record AND are unbeaten in their last 8 competitions (with a 5-3-0 record). They scored 19 times in those 8 games, and conceded only 12.
They head to Charlotte who, while fantastic at home (5-0-1 in 6 matches) are currently 8th in the Eastern Conference. Complicating things for Charlotte is their mid-week game, beating the Richmond Kickers 5-1 on Wednesday night. They started JUST ENOUGH starters that the Canadian team (Montreal, who is not playing in the Open Cup) should have an advantage.
Key to the Match-
Arguably the best player on the pitch for this matchup will be Djordje Mihailovic. He has been a pivotal player for Montreal, with 5 goals and 2 assists in 9 appearances this season. More importantly, Montreal have been 5-1-1 in matches where Mihailovic has a goal or an assist.
Montreal is an average defensive team that can score in droves. With Charlotte playing without Adam Armour and possibly without captain defender Christian Fuchs, this could be a long day for the Charlotte home support who hasn’t seen a loss in quite some time. If Montreal can find a goal early they can cement a win early this Saturday.
Match- Inter Miami host DC United
Pick- DC United +165
Looking at the past two months of the MLS season, DC United seems to either score three times or zero. They are the only team in the league without a tie, yet they have a near even -1 goal differential. At 4-0-5 they are playing average soccer and still have a chance; just two ties would have them tied for points with NYCFC.
Inter Miami, on the other hand, seems to have come back down to earth. After a surprising 4 game win streak, they put up back to back zero-goal games against Miami FC (a minor league team) and Charlotte.
Key to the Match-
Taxiarchis Fountas has been a revelation for DC United. The attacking midfielder has 17 shots in just about two and a half games, while landing 7 of those shots on frame, 4 for goals. That leads the team in just about every category since his first match on April 17th.
This DC team is streaky, but can score, and they are trending in the right direction. I think they have a good chance, at good odds, to pack a punch against a poor Inter Miami team.
Match- Chicago Fire host FC Cincinnati
Pick- Cincinnati +260
Cincinnati has shocked me with their current 3 game win streak AND their ability to push up to 5th on the Eastern Conference table. Combine that with their “B-squad” lineup they trotted out mid-week, and I think they have a good chance to beat the ailing Chicago Fire.
The Fire, after a quick start and those awesome defensive performances, have now gone without a win in their last 7 matches, which included 5 losses and 2 draws. They even bombed out of the Open Cup with an overtime loss to Union Omaha.
Key to the Match-
While both teams offer a host of injuries and suspensions, the Fire are REALLY missing their striker Kacper Przybylko; he is one of the team’s two multiple-goal scorers. Chicago will likely employ a mix of Shaqiri, Offor, and Ivanov in the attack. Those three have only 4 goals combined in 2022. In fact, Chicago’s 7 goals scored and 11 goal allowed makes the Fire not only the most boring team in Major League Soccer, it makes them the team that has seen the least amount of action.
If FC Cincinnati is good at one thing, it is providing action. They can score off of counter attacks or turnovers and have two offensive threats in Brandon Vazquez and Luciano Acosta that have proven, thus far, to be a formidable duo. I would love to see them both on the score sheet this weekend, in a game that leaves me baffled; how is Cincy getting +260?
Match- LA Galaxy host FC Dallas
Pick- LA Galaxy -130
The third place LA Galaxy face off against fourth place FC Dallas in a late weekend matchup that sees some good odds at -130 for the home favorite. LA Galaxy is 3-1 at home while Dallas is 0-3-1 as visitors in 2022. Additionally, the LA Galaxy were able to start mostly second stringers in their 3-2 win over Cal United midweek. Dallas lost 3-2 to Kansas City in their Open Cup game, while playing some important starters.
Key to the Match-
Galaxy is good at home, and I expect them to be the team we want them to be in 2022. In games where Chicharito hasn’t found the net, players like Joveljic, Douglas Costa, and Efrain Alvarez have stepped up with some incredible goals to give Galaxy a clear advantage.
I do want to see some steadier offensive production, but this Galaxy team is LOADED and I think they are a great addition to our portfolio this week.
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