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Match- Sporting KC host Houston Dynamo
Pick- Houston Dynamo +245
I understand that the Dynamo are poor on the road this season, with only .71 points per match, but do we REALLY count Sporting KC as a home team? Just 1.53 points per game at home does not lead us to believe they have any real advantage this season.
At a neutral site, Houston would OWN this matchup. They are 5-3-0 in this last 8, and a team I consider to be the hottest in MLS. This reminds me of the Dynamo-RSL matchup from a few weeks ago in terms of expected advantage, and Houston routed Salt Lake by a 3-0 score.
As for the scorers, Corey Baird and Hector Herriera are contributing every match during their current winning streak, however I see this as a full team unit. Houston has 14 goals scorers this season; you never know who is going to step into the limelight and put one in net. That makes them dangerous, and the +245 line is just not true to reality here.
I would add a +0.5 bet to Houston for safety (to those who may be risk averse).
Match- Austin FC host LA Galaxy
Pick- LA Galaxy +255 + Over 3.5 Goals +120
Two of the loosest defenses in MLS pair up this weekend as Austin FC host the LA Galaxy. Combined, they have allowed 1.64 goals per game and scored 1.38 goals per game. Simple math tells you that they were always hitting the over 2.5 goal prop, so here we stretch it to 3.5 goals and get better odds.
Each of the last 4 LA Galaxy matches went over 3.5 goals, and here they face an even stronger offensive opponent. Austin has three 5+ goal scorers in Driussi, Zardes, and Gallagher, while LA has a top three of Puig, Boyd, and Sharp. This game is going to have some good hunting offense.
As to the winner, I think LA Galaxy should have an edge here. Austin does not have the home field advantage they boasted in past years, earning only a point and a half per home match. This +255 line is reminiscent of the beginning of the season when Austin was looking FINE on paper and Galaxy was a question mark. Now, they have lost only 2 of their last 13 matches, and are the straight-up hotter team.
Enjoy the match, and dabble on LA Galaxy, the over 3.5 goal prop, and LA Galaxy +0.5 for safety.
Match- Orlando City host Inter Miami
Pick- Orlando City -135 + Over 2.5 Goals -150
No Messi, No Party this weekend in Orlando, as the rivalry SHOULD be without Messi and Alba, selling Miami short of their playoff goal (if it ever really WAS a goal) in favor of a US Open Cup chance later in the week. This condensed schedule has wreaked havoc on Miami, and Orlando should be easy beneficiaries at -135 this weekend.
Orlando has done a great job getting hot at the right time and now sits at 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. Facundo Torres is exceptionally hot, with 5 goals and 1 assist in the last 6 matches. He took over for Duncan McGuire in the midst of Duncan’s slump, and they have been quite complimentary this season.
Orlando has also played exceptionally well on the road, and even IF Miami fans run a stadium takeover, I would not swing these odds.
As for the over, Miami has hit over 3.5 in 8 of their last 10 matches, and Orlando is scoring in droves. I expect a great derby for everyone involved. I like Orlando at -135 and the 2.5 goal over at -150.
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