MLS Bets- Top Picks for 9/16/2023
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Match- Minnesota United host Sporting Kansas City
Pick- Minnesota United -101
I really had to scratch my head here; I don’t know what I am missing on this bet. Minnesota is undefeated in MLS since July 9th, and are 3-4-0 in their last 7. Maybe it is their lack of closing out matches (and subsequent draws) that have them at NEARLY even money against Sporting KC- the dregs of MLS who are currently sporting .64 points per game on the road.
Sporting KC put together a streak of competence over the last two months, but still only have 1 win and 6 draws in 15 away matches this season.
If Minnesota, with their offensive weapons of Hlongwane, Pukki, and Reynoso want to be taken seriously, they need to win this game in decisive fashion. I think they can score 3 times this week.
Match- CF Montreal host Chicago Fire
Pick- CF Montreal -111
Montreal have the best home field advantage in MLS this season- with 2.08 points per game at home and only .57 points per game on the road. This week they host the 4-straight-loss Chicago Fire.
Chicago did not inspire confidence last week with a 4-0 loss at the lowly United team that plays at the nation’s capital. In fact, they allowed 11 goals in their current 4 game losing streak, which is a poor form that could allow Montreal to find the back of the net.
Montreal have 20 goals in 13 home matches this season, and will ride the Wonderwall to an easy victory against a lesser opponent.
Match- Charlotte FC host DC United
Pick- Charlotte FC +102
DC United is just 4-2-9 on the road this season, and they head into Charlotte to play a tough Eastern Conference opponent.
Neither team is where they wanted to be at this point in the season, with Charlotte drawing 7 of their last 9 matches and DC sitting at 9-7-12 after a late summer slump. This, for me, comes down to home advantage and a healthier Charlotte FC team.
DC United are not only down after selling off their best asset in Taxiarchis Fountas, but they had 4 players listed as questionable and another 4 listed as out. They still have the always-looming Cristian Benteke up top, but that pales in comparison to what Swiderski, Copetti, and Westwood can do in an instant for Charlotte.
Both teams are great in the air, but I think Charlotte takes advantage with strong wing play and catches their opponent off with their aggressive playstyle.
Match- Colorado Rapids host NE Revolution
Pick- NE Revolution +170
I feel that the Revolution here are being judged by their off-pitch troubles and not their performance. There was big drama in New England with the resignation of Bruce Arena and subsequent promotion (and demotion) of Richie Williams.
I will not downplay how that can affect a team, but some teams overperform after similar events, and in terms of simple talent Revolution can beat the Rapids in their sleep.
The Revolution need Gustavo Bou to make himself available to beat some of the bigger clubs in MLS, but with Carles Gil, Bobby Wood, and Giacomo Vrioni all available the Revs are still sitting pretty.
The Revolution are 13-9-5 with a +14 goal differential while Colorado is 3-10-13 with a -23 goal differential. Do we need to dive any deeper?
Match- Toronto FC host Vancouver Whitecaps
Pick- Vancouver Whitecaps +135
Last week we visited Bazarro World where Toronto FC actually got a win, at home, over Philly, while scoring 3 goals. That win breaks a 10 game losing streak, which resets this weekend when they play fellow Canadians- the Vancouver Whitecaps.
Vancouver is hot, going 4-1-1 in their last 6 matches and scoring 11 goals in that span. They improved to 10-8-8 on the season and are still battling to stay in playoff contention. While their 1.08 points per game on the road is nothing to smile about, they HAVE gone 3-1-1 in their last 5; these matches include wins at LAFC, Portland, and Chicago.
Vancouver is a much better team overall than Toronto, and I would like not to overthink this one. Vancouver at +135 is a bargain, and rounds off my picks for this week.
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