MLS 2023 Week 2 Sportsbook Picks
Updated: Mar 2
Thanks again for joining us here at i80 Sports, where you can find weekly MLS sportsbook picks.
We had our struggles last week, but were able to end on a high not after a Portland win on Monday night.
As promised, before we get to next week's picks, here is a recap of last week's bets!
Match- New England Revolution host Houston Dynamo
Pick- New England Revolution -160
The 1-0-0 New England Revolution will face the 0-0-1 Houston Dynamo this week in an interconference early season match. Although the Revolution are coming off of a down year, I think they have what it takes to return Gillette Stadium to the fortress it once was.
Coach Bruce Arena has about as much talent as he's ever had on this roster- adding Latif Blessing, Giacomo Vrioni, Bobby Wood, and shoring up their backline all in the past year. They are going to improve on their 10-12-12 record from last season, and that means winning home matches like this one.
Key to the Match-
These teams combined for 35 shots last week, so I would expect the gloves to be dropped early. In fact, according to bet360, there have been over 2.5 goals in 17 of the last 19 games in which Houston has played.
This favors the Revolution, who have a much better ability to score AND will have the supporters at their backs this weekend. You are paying a price at -160, but this seems like a safe early weekend pick.
Match- Orlando City host FC Cincinnati
Pick- FC Cincinnati +240
With all things equal, I might consider Orlando vs Cincinnati an even swap, so I am headed into this match favoring Cincinnati at +240 ANYWAY. Let’s add two factors to this equation that makes this a slam dunk pick.
First, while both teams got a home win last week, Cincy scored with Sergio Santos and Obinna Nwobodo, meaning their biggest talents in Brenner, Brandon Vazquez, and Luciano Acosta are still playing to get on the 2023 scoresheet.
Second, I question Orlando’s ambition and ability in this match. Not only did they play a chippy 1-0 match vs RBNY where the visitor attempted to run their legs off, but Orlando also has a mid-week CCL match against Tigres just three days later.
Now, I don't know for sure what kind of squad rotation Orlando will be fielding, if any, but I would still assume Cincinnati has more in the tank AND more incentive to put a few balls in the net.
Key to the Match-
While early season MLS sportsbook bettors favor home teams, neither Cincinnati nor Orlando played particularly well at home last season. In fact, if we look at their home field advantage by points last season, they came in 24th and 25, respectively.
This evens the playing field in my eyes. Take Cincy and the +240 the sportsbooks are gifting you.
Match- FC Dallas host LA Galaxy
Pick- FC Dallas +105
While LA Galaxy got their season delayed by weather last week, FC Dallas stepped off on the wrong foot- a 1-0 loss at home to Minnesota United.
This week, I think FC Dallas, who averaged 1.94 points per game at home last season, are ready to step up and compete. Their 1 of 11 shots on target last week (at 9.1% shot accuracy) was second to last in week 1, and I expect them to break the bad luck streak against the Galaxy, who allowed 51 goals just a season ago.
To complicate things for LA, we still don’t know the availability of Chicharito or Douglas Costa, who both would have sat had the season opener played last week.
Key to the Match-
Who doesn’t love a good midfield battle?
Here we will see MLS stars like Riqui Puig and Gaston Brugman from LA face off against the likes of Paxton Pomykal, Facundo Quignon, and Edwin Cerillo from FC Dallas.
Both teams have star-power, but at home I will take Jesus Ferreira getting better service and finding the back of the net when Dallas wins the midfield battle, and possibly gets some good service off of a turnover or two.
Match- San Jose Quakes host Vancouver Whitecaps
Pick- San Jose Quakes -110
San Jose Earthquakes and Vancouver Whitecaps both lost 2-1 last week, something they did a collective 33 times in 2022. While Whitecaps were still sniffing a playoff spot with a 12-7-15 record, San Jose finished last in the east with an 8-11-15 record.
Despite this imbalance, both teams managed a -17 goal differential last season.
Early in the season, we have to assume more parity and favoritism towards home teams. In this instance, I am also looking at Vancouver having a midweek match for CCL against Real Espana and the small possibility that Vancouver may not start their best 11.
Key to the Match-
San Jose Earthquakes improved their points per game at home last season to 1.59 compared to their meager .47 points per game on the road. While they weren’t a GOOD team either way, I think they have every opportunity to improve this season.
On paper the Earthquakes have a better attack, with Cade Cowell, Jeremy Ebobisse, and Cristian Espinoza forming a trident that has the potential to be a top ten front three in MLS.
Vancouver has Ryan Gauld, and while he may be spectacular, he won’t be enough to carry this team alone this season.
Thiago Almada +250
We saw Almada have two BANGER goals last week, and here’s the thing- we haven’t even seen him take a high percentage shot shits season.
Atlanta faces Toronto this week, and they have the highest goal total this week at over/under 3.5. There will be goals to go around, and with a question mark at the striker position, why WONT Almada do it again?
Sebastian Ferreira +260
As I mentioned earlier, Houston has played in 17 matches out of their last 19 that hit the 2.5 goal over. While that bet is a meager -166, you can pull the trigger on Houston’s top attacking thread with hefty +260 betting odds.
Want a more in depth look at our sportsbook picks and other news around the league this week? Find out weekly youtube video or audio podcast via the links below!
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