Major League Soccer Best Bets: July 15th, 2023
Welcome back to another edition of i80 Sports Toll booth- the best place on the web for Major League Soccer Sportsbook Picks!
Match- CF Montreal host Charlotte FC
Pick- Charlotte +0.5 -135
This week we have 9 teams total who did not play mid-week matches. Of them, a total of ZERO are at home. While that doesn't help swing odds (or inspire confidence), it does give us a few of these little gems to play around with.
Charlotte is on full rest this week facing an ice cold Montreal team. Better for us, they are such long-odds to win that we can get them with the +0.5 spread, all for a -135 discount.
In a vacuum Charlotte lose here, but with Montreal already down Lassi Lappalainen and Rommel Quioto, they added Herrera and Choiniere to the questionable list, leaving them pretty bare bones up top; they haven’t scored a goal in four matches.
Charlotte has struggled with a string of draws, but they are scoring again, and doing it without their star striker Joao Klauss. That makes me think they can put one in early and ride the match to a 1-0 or 1-1 finale, cashing out on these great long-shot odds.
Match- Philadelphia Union host NYCFC
Pick- NYCFC +0.5 -115
This is another bet that, in a vacuum, you would expect Philly to run away with. However, again we have NYCFC off of mid-week rest, and the Union without some key pieces. Julian Carranza, their lead goal scorer and official NYCFC nemesis, will be missing action after a straight red for an altercation against Nashville earlier this week. They also may turn to Joe Bendik while Andre Blake returns from international duty. That would be a huge step down.
NYCFC have been on a bit of an unbeaten streak, going 1-5-0 in the past 6 matches. They are due for another win, and did leave a very difficult match against Montreal, two weeks ago, with 3 points.
Hopefully the fresh legs on the younger team here prevail. These odds are too good considering you win with a NYCFC win or a draw.
Match- Austin FC host Sporting KC
Pick- Over 2.5 Goals -135
Sometimes we just have to ride two hot teams and take an easy over. While I like Austin to win in this matchup (at +115), I also acknowledge a lot of volatility here. Austin has been ALL OVER the place this season, stringing together wins mixed with losses with no discernible pattern. Sporting KC has done the same, and I believe both teams are actually trending up.
Sporting KC has drawn 3 straight away matches, so I am looking at the goal total of 2.5 to hit the over.
Austin FC have scored 16 and allowed 10 at home- that comes out to a 2.36 goals per game total. They have also hit the over in 4 straight at home and 8 of their last 9 matches.
Sporting KC have scored 10 and conceded 19 on the road- for a total of 2.42 goals per game. However, they have recently remembered how to score- of their 30 season goals, 21 came in just the last 10 matches. In fact, they hit the over in 8 of their last 10 total matches AND 3 of their last 4 away games.
Betting overs is fun, and this match certainly has a possibility of being a wild ride.
Match- Real Salt Lake host New York Red Bulls
Pick- Real Salt Lake -105
I truly believe that Real Salt Lake is one of those teams who is going to be vying to raise the cup this season. They improved to 9-7-7 while moving up to 4th in the west, all while adding elite striking talent Chicho Arango. They are 6-3-0 in their last 9 and have taken pride in being a road warrior this season. This week, however, they return home to face a depleted New York Red Bulls side.
Red Bulls will be without a slew of important players. Players they will be missing include some strong defenders; John Tolkin, Dylan Nealis, and Andres Reyes (on a red) will all miss this week’s match. Red Bull has only 1 road win, against Miami, which shouldn’t even count. Here, they have a tough matchup.
Besides injuries, I think RBNY’s playstyle can kill them this week on the road. Their run-your-opponent’s-legs-off high press approach probably doesn’t translate well to playing at altitude in Salt Lake City, especially since they already played a tough midweek match against FC Cincinnati.
Historically, RBNY is 0-6-6 in Real Salt Lake. At -105 for the home team, these are great odds.
Match- Portland Timbers host Columbus Crew
Pick- Columbus Crew +205
Sometimes, we have to throw it all out the window and take a flier. Columbus Crew are 10-6-6 and face a depleted Timbers team. The Timbers have faced some brutal injuries this season and are 12th in the Western Conference. They are without a win in 5 matches, including their midweek 0-0 draw to the Colorado Rapids. Their home record is 5-3-4 which includes a recent draw and loss to NYCFC and the Chicago Fire, respectively.
The Crew are the fresher team here, again I am picking on teams who played no midweek match facing those who did. The Crew will be without Cucho Hernandez, who is suspended, but still have plenty of firepower on offense to leave with a win.
In fact, Columbus Crew still have their two biggest contributors in Christian Ramirez and Lucas Zelarayan, who have combined for 16 goals and 8 assists this season. This bet is not the “long-shot” the odds seem to reflect. I think +205 is a bargain.
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