June 3rd, 2023- Major League Soccer Best Bets + Sportsbook Picks
Updated: Jun 3
Welcome back to another edition of i80 Sports Toll booth- the best place on the web for Major League Soccer Sportsbook Picks!
Last week was a great sportsbook week- with my 5 picks landing a +3.15 unit performance. Check below for this weeks picks! Good luck everyone, and enjoy the brief break in MLS action.
Match- FC Cincinnati host Chicago Fire
Pick- Cincy win + over 2.5g +135
In a week of heavily rotated squads, I look for some solid bets before a short summer break in MLS action. The best team in Major League Soccer, FC Cincinnati, is a great place to start. Here, I am betting a win and teams hitting the 2.5 goal over, all at +135 odds.
Cincy brought HEAT mid-week at NYCFC, and this week they are at home, which gives them an even more substantial advantage. Last weekend, they won on a 1-0 goal by Dominique Badji, his first in a few years, which gave me confidence in the post- Brenner FCC squad.
Luciano Acosta has also recently taken a step into being the number 10 he was signed to be. Over the past 5 matches, he logged 5 goals and 1 assist, while racking up 16 shots and 3 goal creating actions. Needless to say, Cincy is 5-0 during that span.
Key to the Match-
Chicago is one of the worst traveling teams in MLS, earning just .71 points per game on the road. They face FC Cincinnati, which is perfect at home with all wins this season. Lock this bet in.
Chicago Fire and FC Cincinnati have scored or allowed a total of 85 goals during 30 total matches, for a total of 2.83 goals per match. FC Cincinnati has seen 3 or more goals in 6 of their last 8 matches, and Chicago has seen 3 or more in 4 of their last 6. Both Have seen lots of action, and I also feel confident in the over.
Match- Colorado Rapids host San Jose Earthquakes
Pick- San Jose Earthquakes +0.5 -125
This pick is much less an endorsement of San Jose (although I think they have improved over the first half of the season), as it is a condemnation of Colorado, who WILL win the wooden spoon in 2023. Colorado has 6 straight losses, including two straight to RSL and a 4-0 trouncing by Atlanta during that span. Their .43 points per game at home, which used to be among the best advantages in soccer, ranks dead last. By a lot.
San Jose HAS shown some improvement, however, they have a long way to go. They are particularly poor on the road, picking up just .63 points. They have had some recent away success, most recently beating Sounders 1-0 in Seattle, a much tougher place to play this season than Colorado.
Key to the Match-
Colorado’s struggles have been well documented this season, especially on the injury sheet. They have another tough matchup here, albeit a team missing two weapons in Tsakiris and Cade Cowell. While this might have seemed like a big deal at the beginning of the season, the two have combined for 0 goals and just 1 assist this season.
San Jose will be close to full strength, and with the double-chance on winning or drawing at -125, I love this bet.
Match- Vancouver Whitecaps host Sporting KC
Pick- Sporting KC +0.5 -115
While Sporting KC may still be outside the i80 Sports Circle of Trust, I no longer think they must be avoided at all costs. Here, on a mini hot streak, I actually like them visiting an up-and-down Vancouver team.
Sporting KC started the season with a 0-3-6 run, and were 5-1-3 since then. While that may not be scorching hot, it may be enough to melt the Whitecaps this weekend.
Key to the Match-
Vancouver Whitecaps have 2.13 points per game at home and only .43 points per game away. That is really good. However, they have not been good enough, through all competitions, to warrant being such heavy favorites against what I consider an up-and-coming team. After all, Sporting KC can’t possibly have a worse 2nd half than 1st, can they?
What I found here was a POSSIBILITY of an upset, and great odds on a double chance. No more, no less. On such a weird week, being a second 2 matchday week in a row, odds and depth matter more than anything else.
Match- New York Red Bulls host Orlando City
Pick- RBNY win + under 3.5g +114
Red Bull New York has been on a major upswing since firing head coach Gerard Struber. After starting the season 1-6-4, they have been 4-1-2 under Troy Lesesne, and that is progress. Adding to the positive arc of their season, they finally have Luquinhas healthy and Lewis Morgan nearing game fitness. Both will be available this week, and both played in their midweek match (although Morgan played just a half hour).
A win here can help RBNY jump into a playoff spot, a far cry from our expectations just a month ago. Orlando has 1.83 points per game on the road this season, first in MLS. While this would usually scare me away, I think these numbers are a fluke and a correction is in order. I love RBNY to win outright, and I like the under boosting the odds to +285.
Key to the Match-
These two teams have seen 58 goals scored in 30 matches, just over 1.93 per match. In fact, Red Bulls have had only 2 matches all season that hit the over: a 2-1 home win against Montreal and a 2-1 home win over the Crew. Orlando’s defense is better than both those teams, and now they match up nicely against a Red Bulls offense which is less than robust.
Match- FC Dallas hosts Nashville SC
Pick- Nashville SC +270
You know the deal, I don't get into much details on bonus picks. Here we have Nashville SC at great odds, +270. This is no guarantee and is not for the faint hearted. However, these odds are fantastic. On short rest, who knows? 4 games in two weeks has given us much more difficult results.
Have a great week everybody!
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