July 8th, 2023- Major League Soccer Best Bets + Sportsbook Picks
Welcome back to another edition of i80 Sports Toll booth- the best place on the web for Major League Soccer Sportsbook Picks!
Good afternoon all! After a few tough sportsbook weeks, my theme here is hammering home teams, albeit at lesser odds, that have great chances to hit. Good luck and make sure to hit Twitter and Threads tomorrow to find out complete breakdown of picks!
Match- CF Montreal hosts Atlanta United
Pick- Montreal DNB -140
Montreal has one of the strongest home advantages in MLS and they host Atlanta United this week. On the surface, we see Montreal with 2.33 points per game at home and Atlanta with .8 points per game on the road. When we dig deeper, we see two teams that have home/away splits that far surpass what we expect around the league.
We need to dive deeper into Montreal’s home/away splits. In Montreal, they scored 15 times and conceded only 4 times this season. That is the lowest number of home goals conceded in MLS, and one of the best differentials at +11. Atlanta has poor stats on the road that compliment this pick nicely. They are 1-5-4 on the road, with a -9 goal differential.
All signs here point towards an easy Montreal victory, however Atlanta still has a touch of an unknown streak. They HAVE drawn 5 times on the road. While the double chance for Montreal is poor odds, I will take a peek at the “draw no bet” option at -140, and sprinkle some Montreal to win.
I think this has the ability to be a sneaky good game.
Match- Charlotte FC host FC Cincinnati
Pick- Cincinnati +0.5 -150
Another great matchup for soccer bettors this week comes via the Charlotte home match, hosting FC Cincinnati. Charlotte, formerly a home powerhouse, are only 3-4-3 at home this season and have two draws and a loss in their last 3.
Cincy will be without Miazga and Vazquez, and that sure has affected them over their past two matches, sporting a loss and a draw. However, in this match you can get Cincinnati, the top team in the eastern conference, with a +0.5 goal kicker for -150 odds. This covers the draw and gives you some sportsbook insurance.
So far, in their two game history, both home teams have won 2-0. Here, we bet against historical trends and take advantage of one of MLS’s best teams at fantastic odds. I would also sprinkle Cincy to win at +205.
Match- Columbus Crew hosts NYCFC
Pick- Columbus Crew -130
Columbus is one of the best home teams in MLS, going 8-2-1 at home. This week they face NYCFC, and look to end NY's 5 straight road games without a loss. As Scott pointed out in our podcast this week, four of those matches were a draw, with their only 1-0 win over Montreal.
The Crew are contenders and have Zelarayan, one of the top players in the league. NYCFC is susceptible to big play from big players, and at the same time lack the support to truly fire back against top offenses.
Match- Vancouver Whitecaps host Seattle Sounders
Pick- Vancouver +107
Vancouver Whitecaps host the Seattle Sounders this week, and I am going to continue to hammer home favorites, especially when it features a home team as good as Vancouver. Vancouver is 5-4-1 at home with a +12 goal differential; they scored 21 and conceded 9 in their 10 home matches.
Seattle has not been very “Seattle” this season; their 9-5-7 record is more mediocre than powerhouse. They are a touch unpredictable on the road, going 3-2-5, but 3 (!!) of those away results were against teams with only 10 or 9 players.
Vancouver will be without Julian Gressel, but Seattle will be missing Arreaga, Roldan, and Morris- pivotal players in each stage of play. Their ability to create scoring chances, along with a larger group of contributors, will lead them to a home victory at +107 this weekend.
Bonus Match- LAFC host San Jose Earthquakes
Bonus Pick- San Jose +1.5 -145
As I stated on our i80 Sports MLS podcast earlier this week, LAFC has done little this season to deserve the respect of old. Something isn’t right- whether it be a post CCL slump or just too many games too close together.
Here, a rival San Jose side is getting +1.5 goals at -145 odds. This covers a win, a draw, and a 1 goal loss. All you need is SJ to avoid losing by 2 goals and you can cash a decent bet at FANTASTIC odds.
Good luck, and have a great week!
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