July 1st, 2023- Major League Soccer Best Bets + Sportsbook Picks
Welcome back to another edition of i80 Sports Toll booth- the best place on the web for Major League Soccer Sportsbook Picks!
Hello there, and welcome back to another week of MLS Sportsbook picks! We held on for dear life after a drubbing last week; with some hope that we are still holding plus money on the season. Let's just take a final peek at last week's results, before closing that chapter and never looking back .
And now, onto this week's picks!
Match- Columbus Crew host RBNY
Pick- Columbus Crew -103
My first pick this week finds the 9-4-6 Columbus Crew facing the somewhat resurging (yet unpredictable) New York Red Bulls. This is a great pick; the Crew are RED HOT winning 4 and drawing 1 of their last 5 matches. They also beat Nashville last week, 2-0, which reflects their stellar home form. Second, Columbus is the better team and is near even money at home.
Red Bull is going to be a tough team to bet on moving forward- they started scoring and, as some key players make returns, are adding firepower. In fact, their recent scoring surge was without Cory Burke, Lewis Morgan, John Tolkin, and Dante Vanzeir.
While Red Bull may have turned a corner, though, I think the Crew sneak a win. They are 11-5-1 in their last 17 home matches, and that advantage is going to push this bet across the finish line.
Match- CF Montreal host NYCFC
Pick- CF Montreal +128
NYCFC has been great historically against CF Montreal, but I see great value with Montreal, at home, at +128 odds. NYCFC is winless in 11 matches and face a rather hot Montreal squad, in Montreal, where they are 7-0-1 on the season. In fact, statistically speaking, Montreal has the greatest home advantage of any MLS team.
Adding to New York’s woes, they will be without one of their bright young stars, James Sands (international duty) and a key piece of their defense in Thiago Martins (surgery). Montreal will be without a handful of players, also, but their squad is used to rotation in their starting 11. They have 16 players with 550 or more minutes.
Match- Toronto FC host Real Salt Lake
Pick- Over 2.5 Goals -125
I wanted to bet Real Salt Lake at +220 (and I will…) but my official pick here is over 2.5 goals at -125. This hedge is partly because I worry about Toronto’s post-Bradley bump, where sometimes we see teams with recently cleared front offices overperform for a week or two under a new regime.
Toronto has scored 18 and allowed 26, seeing 44 goals in 20 matches this season, or 2.2 total goals per match. Real Salt Lake, on the other hand, has seen 2.8 goals per match this season.
RSL is 4-2-0 in their last 6 away matches, scoring 11 times and conceding 6 times in that span. I think there will absolutely be fireworks in Toronto this week, and love the over on 2.5 goals at -125 odds.
Match- San Jose Earthquakes host LA Galaxy
Pick- Quakes +104
LA Galaxy are in the midst of their best streak of the season, and head into San Jose this weekend for what will be a difficult match. Their “wonder stretch” is a four game span going 1-3-0, but nonetheless they are getting some head scratching results in the span.
These two teams are RIVALS in the true sense of the word. Galaxy represents new money and Hollywood, while San Jose tries to connect with the working man. This is LA and SJ’s second time meeting this season, out of three scheduled matches. I feel full advantage goes to San Jose.
The Earthquakes have 2.1 points per game at home this season, and should only be missing Cade Cowell and Nathan on international duties. Meanwhile, Galaxy have a rap sheet of missing players; Caceres, Chicharito, Jalen Neal, and Zavaleta.
This matchup favors the Quakes because Galaxy can’t seem to find the net, while Quakes are stingy on defense. I love a 1-0 win here for the Earthquakes, and I don’t quite think we hit the over of 2.5 goals here. The game script here is a quick and easy home win, and off to LAFC the next week to face their other geographic rival.
Match- St Louis City host Colorado Rapids
Pick- Over 2.5 Goals -125
St. Louis City have proven they can score goals, especially at home. They lead the league with most goals scored, tied for Atlanta with 37. In fact, St. Louis has seen 61 goals scored in their 19 matches, for an average of 3.2 goals per match. At home, this goes up to 3.4 goals per match.
Colorado is poor, but their per game averages suffer because of their lack of ability scoring for themselves. In fact, they have just 14 goals in 19 games this season, and I know I don’t need to explain how that is the worst in the league.
This one is cut and dry- take St. Louis at -115 and take the over at -125; St. Louis can probably cover that on their own.
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