i80 Sports Weekly MLS "Toll Booth" Picks October 7, 2021
During a big international break MLS sportsbook picks become even more unpredictable, so I am glad we only have 4 total games this week. Before we jump in let’s take a look at how we did last week.
As you can see- we are up 32.15 units on 148 units wagered this season. That is about a 21.7 percent winning margin- you see out sportsbook picks have been consistent in the green- I think we have only had two losing weeks all season.
Let’s get right into this week’s matches!
Match- RBNY hosts Inter Miami
Pick- Inter Miami and Draw +120
RBNY has been in their first decent stretch of the 2021 season- going 3-2-0 and without a loss in their last 5. Meanwhile, Miami just completed a stretch with four straight losses. So why would I, a Red Bull supporter, be taking Inter Miami and a draw on the double chance?
This comes down to betting odds. I think New York has a good chance to win this game outright, but at +400 on Miami to win and +120 on the double chance these odds are just too good to pass up. I think Miami is better than their 9-5-13 record and has stars that can change a game.
Key to the Match-
During their recent stretch, Red Bull has done nothing GREAT but lots of things well- including keeping opponents off the scoresheet. The 30 goals RBNY has allowed in 2021 is among the lowest in the league.
However, Miami has the players to break down this defense. We witnessed first hand last season how Gonzalo Higuain can turn a game upside down on set pieces and corners. I think the best chance Miami has to score will be off of turnovers, and with players clogging midfield like Matuidi, Gregore, and Gibbs those should be plentiful for Inter Miami this weekend.
Match- FC Cincy host Philadelphia Union
Pick- Philadelphia Union +110
This is a bit of disrespect for one of the top teams in the east going against the eventual 2021 Wooden Spoon winner. Union has shown us all season what they are made of and their 11-9-7 record is a reflection of their depth and consistency.
Cincinnati, on the other hand, stinks. They’re bad at football and quite honestly I don’t want to write about them anymore.
Key to the Match-
Philadelphia will have a good share of the ball and this game will be played entirely in FC Cincinnati’s half. Philadelphia looks great on set pieces and free kicks, so if Cincy tries to bunker too early in this game, it could get out of hand quickly.
Match- Seattle Sounders host Vancouver Whitecaps
Pick- Seattle Sounders -155
I am so tempted here to take the up-and-coming Whitecaps, but Seattle at home has to be the play. They’re at home and have been getting contributions lately from Joao Paulo, Will Bruin, and Jimmy Medranda.
This will have to be a team effort- Seattle has 8 players listed as “out” with injury or international duty, including the Roldan brothers, Nico Lodeiro, and Raul Ruidiaz. I think the home fans give the Sounders the juice they need to hold off the Whitecaps at home.
Key to the Match-
Seattle is good at scoring unexpected goals- they have 6 more goals than their “expected goals” this season. Whitecaps, on the other hand, are good at conceding unexpected goals- allowing 7.5 more goals than expected this season.
Sounders at home is a lock. Set it and forget it- but you have to pay heavily at -155 for that convenience.
Match- Minnesota United host Colorado Rapids
Pick- Colorado Rapids +200
Minnesota is a team I expected more form this season- they currently sit in 7th place (the final playoff spot) with 38 points and a 10-8-9 record. I expect them to miss the postseason by a surging Whitecaps team (although both will lose this week). Rapids, on the other hand, have played up to my expectations but will this week be without Mark-Anthony Kaye AND Kellyn Acosta, the hear of their lineup, both on international duty.
Minnesota will also be without their best players- as Reynoso is on suspension, and Metanire, Lod, and Boxall are all out this week. Tie goes to the runner, this time, because I like Colorado at +200 a lot more than Minnesota without their stars.
Key to the Match-
I have a lot more faith in Cole Bassett and Jack Price controlling the Colorado midfield than I do in Jacori Hayes filling in for Reynoso. Colorado still has playmakers like Jonathan Lewis, Michael Barrios, and Andre Shinyashiki who will have enough firepower to push Colorado to an away win.
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