i80 Sports Toll Booth- Matchday 25 MLS Sportsbook Picks
Welcome back to another edition of i80 Sports Toll booth- the best place on the web for Major League Soccer Sportsbook Picks!
Match- Toronto FC host Portland Timbers
Pick- Toronto FC -125
Toronto FC, sparked by additions of Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi, have made a recent push into relevance by beating Charlotte and Nashville, while drawing New England. Their form contrasts to Portland favorably; Portland has drawn their last 3 matches.
Two interesting advanced metrics I found for this game are as follows: these two teams allow more touches than any other team in their own penalty area AND allow the most shot creating actions. That reflects directly in their goals against; Toronto and Portland have given up 79 goals in a combined 48 games.
Key to the Match-
If this is going to be a shootout, I have to go with the team that features the player with 96 goals in the Italian Serie A. Lorenzo Insigne leads Toronto FC to a win this weekend.
Match- FC Cincinnati host Atlanta United
Pick- FC Cincinnati +110
Both Cincinnati and Atlanta supporters, based on my preseason analysis of these two squads, should be surprised at this pick!
Both teams won their last match; Cincy broke their winless streak with a 3 goal statement win against the Philadelphia Union this past week, while Atlanta beat Seattle 2-1 at home. However, Atlanta has not won a road game since April 2nd and will travel to TQL Stadium in Cincinnati.
Key to the Match-
Both teams in this matchup have a -3 goal differential: Atlanta by scoring 31 and conceding 34, and Cincy scoring 40 and allowing 43. Cincinnati addressed their defense with a big addition, Matt Miazga, during the summer transfer window and he SHOULD be available to play this weekend. If this gives Cincinnati any edge, they could pay their +110 home odds.
Match- Colorado Rapids host Columbus Crew
Pick- Colorado +100
Colorado has a huge home advantage this season- averaging 2 points per game at home and .55 points per game away. They also proved last week that they are one of the fittest teams in MLS by taking a 4-5 road win against the high press at Red Bull Arena. This week, the Rapids head home to host the Columbus Crew.
While I talk a lot about Cucho Hernandez atop the Crew attack, I haven’t written nearly as much about the Rapids’ new(ish) attacking addition- Gyasi Zardes. Zardes has 5 goals and 1 assist in Colorado’s last 6 matches, including an impressive hat trick against Minnesota last week.
Key to the Match-
Rapids had an active transfer year in 2022, adding not only Gyasi Zardes, but getting Ralph Priso in a swap for Mark-Anthony Kaye. This week, however, I will be looking at addition by availability- with Jack Price returning from injury. Price is the linchpin to the Rapids midfield, and his return automatically makes Colorado better. Even odds at +100 make this a worthwhile pick.
Match- FC Dallas host San Jose Earthquakes
Pick- FC Dallas -150
FC Dallas is a team that is historically good at home, and this week their 3rd place team hosts the 13th place San Jose Earthquakes. They cemented their midfield at the deadline by adding Sebastain Lletget brings another piece to an already strong home attack; Dallas has a +7 home differential with 18 goals and only 11 conceded.
The Quakes are on a 6 game winless streak and have allowed goals 11 times in their last 6. Adding to this lopsided matchup, San Jose is 1-4-7 as visiting opponents and have a -10 goal differential in those 12 matches.
Key to the Match-
FC Dallas is better than San Jose, and they are home. That is key.
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