Welcome back to another week of the i80 Sports "Toll-Booth" featuring the best in Major League Soccer sportsbook picks.
While this may be week 20-something for MLS purposes (with all those pesky mid-week games) this is the 20th edition of my MLS Toll Booth where I have made public my best picks for each of the last 20 weeks since MLS kickoff.
Lets take just a quick look at where we stand after just about 3/4 of the MLS season-
As you can see, we are up over 26 units after placing 138 wagers on MLS this season. Although our win-loss is just 6 under .500, you can see our earnings is still high in the positive by pacing SMART bets with great odds.
Lets get into this week's picks!
Match- Columbus Crew host Montreal Impact
Pick- Impact or Draw -130 (Double Chance)
Montreal is higher in the standings AND in better form, yet the straight moneyline has Columbus at -110 and Montreal at +250. Columbus is 6-3-3 at home this season but I don't see that advantage as being enough to hold off a Montreal Impact team that will be near full strength.
To make things worse, Zelarayan is likely OUT for the Crew with a hip injury while Pedro Santos is still questionable after missing last game with a concussion.
Key to the Match-
Montreal has been good on defense (allowing only 30 goals in 25 matches this year) and I don’t want to sound too John-Madden here, but the key to the match is scoring more goals than your opponent.
Montreal is better at scoring that the Crew- Montreal has scored on 33% of their shots on target compared to the Crew’s 26%. Montreal is also averaging about 2 more shot creating actions per game. If we add to that the current good form of playmakers like Djordje Mihailovic I think Montreal has a good chance in this one outright, and I like the risk-mitigation of taking the double chance here.
Match- Chicago Fire host Nashville SC
Pick-Nashville or Draw -250 (Double Chance)
Nashville has two matches this week- mid-week in Miami and this weekend in Chicago.
I assume the only reason Nashville is +135 is because of squad rotation, but even then you’d have to consider them beating the hapless Fire. Chicago is 6-5-14 allowing 40 goals in 25 games this season.
Nashville is second in the east following the MLS Success Recipe- win at home and tie on the road. They currently sit at a 2-5-3 away record and have only lost 3 of their 7 road games.
Key to the Match-
One of the keys to the season for Nashville (and their ability to bring draw on the road) is the strength of their backline. They have allowed only 9 goals in their 10 road games and if they can keep the Fire at 1 or less they should easily be able to find the net.
Without a clear moment of brilliance from Beric, Sekulic, or Hebers I just do not see Chicago staying competitive for long in this one.
Match- Vancouver Whitecaps host FC Dallas
Pick- Vancouver +105
If you go to our YouTube (youtube.com/i80sports) or download our latest podcast (available on all major podcast hosts) you can hear us talk about the troubles FC Dallas has had this season.
They recently fired their coach Luchi Gonzalez after a disappointing 6-9-11 record and winning only 1 of their last 8 games. They have also had players leaving on transfer, international duty, and the first squad never quite hit their stride. Jader Obrian was one of our High Performance Players and will be joined in a solid attack by Jesus Ferreira, Ricardo Pepi, and Paxton Pomykal IN THEORY when this squad is at 100%.
Vancouver is currently 4 points out of playoff contention and is trying to claw their way back in. This match represents one of their best recent opportunities to get back into the playoff hunt.
Key to the Match-
FC Dallas is 2-3-9 on the road with 19 goals and 31 goals against. As good as this attack can be, their defense doesn’t travel well (or AT ALL).
Vancouver has only lost 1 in their last 12 matches and has completely turned their season around from the first-half disaster that had them near the bottom of the table.
Match- Sporting KC hosts Seattle Sounders
Pick- Seattle Sounders +260
Unstoppable object meets immovable force this Sunday as Seattle travels to Children’s Mercy Park. This matchup is between two POWERHOUSE Western Conference teams that play exceptional both at home and on the road.
This bet caught my eye for two reasons- Seattle at +260 is always a bet to fire up AND betting on a Sunday Prime Time match (going up against NFL football) is going to give you a reason to tune in and watch the game.
Key to the Match-
No player in Major League Soccer has had as low expectations and as high contributions as Daniel Salloi with his 13 goal 5 assist tally sheet for 2021. With Pulido missing last week’s SKC match Salloi scored in their 4-0 defeat of Minnesota.
However, everyone already knows the deal with Sounders- get Ruidiaz the ball and magic happens. Seattle does not surprise their opponents- they simply outplay them.
I love SKC but I am never betting against Seattle when they are getting +260. On a $10 bet you can win $26 and cash out a cool $36 on a team with a 13-6-5 record? Sold.
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These picks are made in conjunction with information provided and are not influenced by anyone outside the i80 Sports team. While we hope they are correct (and we help YOU have success), i80 Sports, its writers, or contributors cannot be held liable for any gambling losses.